Hi, it's Jenn
I read an article today titled "Russian Analyst Predicts Decline and Breakup of U.S."(http://en.rian.ru/world/20081124/118512713.html)
Basically a professor at the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affars says in an interview that U.S. will soon collapse and as a result, Russia and China will replace the U.S.'s role as a world dominant power.
Panarin, the professor, mentions that the "vulnerable political setup" and the "lack of unified national laws and divisons among the elite" will become clear in this time of crisis.
He also predicts that the U.S. will break up into 6 parts: the Pacific coast (with its growing Chinese populations), the South(with Hispanics), Texas, the Atlantic Coast, 5 poor central states (Native Americans), and the northern states influenced by Canada.
He even suggests that Russia could reclaim Alaska(Oh no, not Wasilla) since it was only granted on lease.
How do you guys think about this article? In fact, I laughed a little while I was reading it but after I was done I wondered if current economic crisis will possibly lead to the decline of U.S. dominance in the international community. I mean America got through the Great Depression, right?
Jared Diamond, a Pulitzer Prize Winning Professor at UCLA, wrote that 3 Factors that cause civilizations to fall are environmental change, economic instability, and disruption in food production. Do you feel as if we are even close to this point? Will America's nightmare become real?
(Jennifer Park)
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6 comments:
This is definitely an interesting article. I half agree with it.
I think that it is possible that the US could drop it's spot as a world dominant power. It's hard to predict. China and Russia are improving, and it's possible that we may not be able to get out of this economic crisis.
As for the splitting up of the US, I don't think that would really happen. I just don't think that the US is able to be split up so evenly or easily.
this is Mary by the way
We talked about this a bit in Euro. This guy does not seem to know much about the U.S. despite being in political science. "The Central States with its large NATIVE AMERICAN populations"? I don't know what states he is talking about, I'm pretty positive that Native Americans are a pretty small minority almost everywhere in the U.S. The whole thesis has flaws like this throughout but I won't go into too much analysis.
This whole article strikes me as ironic. Russia has been hit just as hard if not harder by the global financial crisis. The situation in Moscow could be described as dire, with people standing in long times and banks, withdrawing upwards of 50-100k dollars worth of currency in cash as confidence in the banking system plummets. Crime in the city is at record levels, and how could it not be, with all of those people walking around with immense amounts of money on their person.
Steve Szumski
I honestly do not think that this nation will collapse any time soon. Personally, I believe that the fact that we are in the midst of an economic crisis is not sufficient to constitute a reason to suspsect America's imminent downfall. As Jenn points out, this country has made it through the Great Depression, not to mention several other panics and recessions.
In general, I do not think that this article should even lead us to ponder the possible downfall of our nation. It is important to note the POINT OF VIEW from which the article was written. The title indicates that a RUSSIAN analyst has predicted the decline/breakup of the US. Clearly, the Russian professor who wrote the article is naturally inclined to believe that the US will soon fall, and that Russia could become the new world power. The professor has bias, just as all of us do.
I agree with Steve that the professor's thesis also has certain flaws. In addition, while it is possible that some countries will eventually surpass the US in power or world domination, I do not think that this means the same thing as stating that the US will "collapse" or "break up," which again indicates the author's bias.
(Janet Lee)
This Russian political analyst (should we consider GASCAP's authority?) is rather dramatic, to say the least. He seems to think that insecurity of the dollar will lead to the downfall of the United States. Has he forgotten the many civilzations that have withstood monetary crises in history? Even the French Absolutists, with their budget insanity, were able to progress financially. Despite their lack of a banking system, they were able to sell bonds and hold interest. Versailles wasn't exactly the cheapest project on Louis XIV's agenda.
Just as Mr. Lazarow said in class, "change" is on the lips of all Americans. We acknowledge that reform is vital at times like these. Even if "the U.S. will break up into six parts", which I find very unlikely, our openness to change will act as a remedy to the reunification of America. This is merely a personal opinion, however. After dealing with both internal and external conflicts, a bit of an economic roller coaster seems like a walk in the park.
"In 2006 a secret agreement was reached between Canada, Mexico and the U.S. on a common Amero currency as a new monetary unit. This could signal preparations to replace the dollar."
This quote from the article irks me. The United States, with its efficient secret service and CIA, was unable to pick up on this? I find this quite sketchy. Do I have the right to question the credibility of these quotes and this source? I think it is my duty to do so! Once again, just a personal opinion..
I mean, sure, we all know about the current instability of the nation, but a total geographic disruptions sounds absurd.
(Sam Maliha)
Two things that I thought of while reading this article. The first, the U.S. has experienced the Great Depression, and the official term for our current economic situation right now is "recession". I do not think we are on the brink of dissolving as a nation. The second thing I thought of is the fact that Russia is struggling right along with us. If Russia is in this with us, what evidence is there that they will come out on top? If Russia's economy is dependent on the well-being of our economy, why would they do any better than the U.S.? I think that we are all in this together (all nations), whether we/they like it or not. We have survived the Great Depression and many other recessions, and we have (I hope) learned from our mistakes and made corrections. I hope we do the same with this recession.
(By the way, I agree with Sam-- where's the GASCAP in this article, anyway?)
Emily T.
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